Oplecenter Business & Finance News

I never think of the future-it comes soon enough (Albert Einstein). ONE year ago, most market participants believe that the portfolio securities in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) will still be listed at approximately 30 percent return.

Four months ago we seriously discussed the possibility of oil prices touched USD200 per barrel rate. This month the government still believed that economic growth in 2009 was 6 percent range. Of very uncomfortable to write that the index has now been eroded IDX approximately 60 percent compared to the beginning of 2008. Oil prices continued to decline and is now trading below $ 70 per barrel.

Dollar exchange rate has been maintained quite well, actually only in a few days could be dropped in amounts thousands per day. Many countries suddenly took serious steps to anticipate the recession and honestly revised economic growth targets. In front of the parliament, Prime Minister Gordon Brown publicly admitted, the UK economy is entering a recession cycle.

These days some officials have always maintained, what is happening in Indonesia is the impact of the global negative sentiment, a fact that we do not deny it. The problem, the same officials had always expressed Indonesia’s economic fundamentalism is very strong and this time the crisis was quite different from the crisis that hit the region ten years ago.

All the data indicated the purpose of trying to convince market players not to panic and remain objective-rational. Unfortunately, some market participants view such policy measures are not consistent, so the reaction provided the reaction reflects the loss of principal trust (vote of no confidence). Imagine, in the face of credit and liquidity dried interbank loans, Bank Indonesia raised interest rates precisely (BI Rate).

Not to mention the people forget the statement that the Indonesian vice president to solve problems with their own strengths, there suddenly describing loan officers standby (standby loan) from the World Bank is ready disbursed, and no new proposals in bilateral debt to several countries.

At the time of rising oil prices, which then followed up with the increase of oil prices three times in the past three years, we are always convinced that oil prices would be reduced if oil prices fall on world markets. Many countries have lowered oil prices. Malaysia has even lowered the price of oil in the country twice.

Why do not we do this soon? Pragmatically, this step is the very credible steps to prove the truth of reason and the promise that had always been presented. Everyone knows, the prices on the stock exchange rose sharply during this because the trade surplus (overtrading) with high levels of speculation. So, if one day the price drops, it is a market correction, so that the prices of securities near strength direpresentasikannya real economy.

That is why, if there is a suspension (dismissal) of trade, its nature must be very short, not prolonged. What we see in it displaying IDX hesitation or panic. Market participants interpret what happens is the practice of protecting the interests of a particular issuer.

There are elements of the community see the injustice here because when prices rise, profits enjoyed personally, but if the opposite happens, the loss should be borne jointly (Privatization of profits and externalization of losses). Maintaining the confidence of market participants is an important factor in maintaining economic stability.

Market participants would hesitate if the signal or signals given full policy makers with dishonesty or contradictory to each other. As written Rosabeth Kanter (2006), trust and credibility is built through transparency and consistency. “They are not episodes, they are trajectories. They are tendencies, directions, Pathways.” Hopes that a new balance is coming is the hope of neoclassical economists who believe that the market has a mechanism and the ability to recover quickly.

When Thorstein Veblen (1898) writes, “Equilibrium is a Daydream of Economists who do not live in the real world”, French President Nicolas Sarkozy made the statement, “Selfregulation is finished, laissezfaire is finished.” Together with a number of world leaders, Mr Sarkozy urged the United States (U.S.) to be willing to overhaul the world financial architecture and willing to share the role with a number of new economic powers emerging as China, Japan, India, and countries in the Middle East.

The government continues we expect to take a transparent policy and consistent. Do not let the one hand the government has appealed to the minimum wage increase sought does not exceed the level of economic growth, but there is no appeal or similar arrangement to limit the amount of annual bonus or incentive (gratification) for the commissioners and directors of state owned enterprises (SOEs) and companies public.

Also, do not get in the middle of efforts to suppress termination rates (FLE) as low as possible, the development funds allocated to the area stays neat as savings in banks. In the present circumstances, employment creation programs through labor-intensive projects in order to create or maintain the public’s purchasing power is needed.

Do not let the name of pragmatism and economic considerations, we re-drawn to increasingly away from the constitutional mandate. In the middle of the storm, we must continue to have a clear direction